Of “Why” and “When”
Don Hodge for 4thTriage
In collaboration with Will Stewart
In collaboration with Will Stewart
Lazarus Long – Robert A. Heinlein’s rugged supreme survivor
Why are we putting up this blog? The “Why” is partly because Lazarus Long’s advice is still as valid today as it has been since the beginning of time. Here in the USA we’ve been comfortable for a long time. No real in-your-face widespread and long-term suffering on US soil for 70 years. A casual look at history suggests to us that we as a culture are overdue for Bad Times.
Part of the “Why” is because there is a lot of misinformation floating around. Some of that seems to be deliberate. That’s really not surprising given that for the last one hundred years our public education has been dumbing down America. If you doubt this google it, for books on the subject. The academics are convinced that has happened and is still happening. There is a reason for the growth of home schooling. History has been censored and re-written. Children are encouraged to accept anything written or spoken as absolute truth. No need, neighbor, to question the qualifications or the motivations of that information source. Uncontrolled emotion is encouraged for decision making instead of logical analysis. Honesty from public officials, politicians, and even scientists is often in question. So if you are told there is a problem, it can be very difficult to confirm and/or define to what extent. We’ll try to shed some light in separating real potential problems from fear mongering. Complicating things is that the fear mongers who misuse the name of Science and falsify data are not always wrong.
That brings us to the “When”. Some things really are a case of “When will it happen” and not “If it will happen”. “If”s are conditional occurrences. If a partic-ular behavior continues, such and such will happen. Examples are: if you keep spending more than you take in, economic collapse will occur – both on a personal and a governmental level; if the infrastructure of bridges, dams, and roads is not inspected and replaced in a timely manner, bad things will happen; and if you drive poorly, auto accidents will happen.
“When” could be many things coming in all sizes from minor personal to global catastrophe. Some of a smaller regional nature are: earthquakes, floods, fires, and weather related storms. Others of a more continental/global nature include: solar flares, asteroids/comets (yes, they do hit Earth rather frequently and fortunately the moon catches many of them), pandemics, and cultural clashes in this ever-shrinking world. Also we live in an age where we are projected to see more change the next 20 years than the past 100. Change also brings anxiety and unanticipated problems/ solutions. For a more detailed partial list of “When”s see our list – which will be updated as possibilities occur to us. The list is entitled (you guessed it) “When”s.
“When” does appear to be approaching. We use the all-encompassing term “Event” for whatever disaster might occur. Many people are uneasy today. A lot of that comes from uncertainty. We like to think we are in control. However James 4:13-15 (KJV) reminds us:
13 Now listen, you who say, "Today or tomorrow we will go to this or that city, spend a year there, carry on business and make money."
14 Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes.
15 Instead, you ought to say, "If it is the Lord's will, we will live and do this or that."
So what? Are to race around like a chicken with its head cut off? Are we to worry ourselves (and others around us) sick? We don’t see how that would solve anything. There is a fine line between acting decisively and impulsively. Our suggestion is to do what you can and leave the rest to God. That means Problem Solving.
We believe that all problems have solutions. We note that disasters have a common core set of problems that need to be solved. The longer you wait to address a problem the fewer options you will have. Of course, some of those options may be ones you really don’t like. If you want better options, preparation is required.
So how do we approach the “When”s and “If”s of life - and prepare for them? That brings us back to our “Why” and the driving principles found in the motto of the USAFPR (US Air Force ParaRescue) “Ut Alii Vivant” - (So) that others may live and Hosea 4:6 (KJV) “my people are destroyed from lack of knowledge”. This blog and the related website (coming later this year) will try to provide you with useful info.
The steps involved in “Preparation” are: 1) recognizing that there is a Problem; 2) defining the Problem; 3) Urgency in addressing the Problem; 4) finding Personal and Neighborhood Solutions; 5) acquiring what is needed to implement the Solutions; and 6) Reasons for Hope.
We have been trained to recognize potential failure points and dangers. We believe we may have spotted some stuff on the road ahead. Look, we could be wrong, but we have put a lot of research and thought into this. We believe we have a moral duty to warn people (as clearly as possible) about the specifics of the problems and possible solutions. What people decide to do with that information is beyond our control. Unfortunately, you can really only help people who are willing to help themselves. In short, their action or inaction becomes a sort of Darwinian Intelligence Test – a purging of the gene pool.
You can categorize thing by their Urgency and Importance. Urgency takes priority over Importance. Napoleon said “Ask me for anything but Time”. Once the opportunity – whether for preparation or just doing a task – is past that impacts the rest of your life. Sometimes you can recover. Sometimes you can’t. Some of the problems and vulnerabilities – both man-made and natural – are cases of “When” and not “If”. Some of these “When”s have small penalties attached like not eating better because you didn’t raise it or get it from a local farm. Others have severe, even fatal penalties like only having a few days food on hand when your area is put under quarantine for several months because of a pandemic.
We believe in the Boy Scout motto: “Be Prepared”. Yes, you can roll the dice on the belief that NIMBY is a valid concept. However, history tells us that stuff happens and Mr. Murphy ensures that it is always at the worst time, the worst place. If you are wrong and have no preparations, how does that impact your family? We strongly urge working towards removing the vulnerabilities in your life. Don’t do it in a state of panic, but with a calm, purposeful sense of Urgency. There are real “When”s approaching.
We emphasize the need to be Solutions oriented. We will present both lo-tech and hi-tech approaches. (We love gadgets, but the right gadget may not be available so … ) We also intend to revisit “old” methods in light of modern materials and techniques. We believe that “one size does not fit all”. The approach that works for you may not fit your neighbor’s situation – or yours, if you’re not at home. Hence, know several ways to accomplish your goals. We are generalists (or “nexialists”) in that we try to search many disciplines and industries to craft solutions. On a personal level many of these solutions will provide you with a better quality of life. Many (done bit by bit) will give you a safety net against the larger problems and vulnerabilities of life.
You really do need your neighbors – particularly if an Event happens. Yes, it also greatly helps to have a self-sufficient community around you, but there are other important reasons. See “The Pros and Cons of Single-Family Self-Sufficiency”.
We have been studying these problems – both as potential occurrences and as real life examples – since the mid-1970s. We have analyzed what solutions have yielded better results and what haven’t. We’ll share this with you.
If you are not killed immediately in a disaster or an Event, you stand a fair chance of living for a while. We humans are a stubborn lot and refuse to see the quality of life for family, friends, and neighbors decrease whatever the disruption or Event – without a struggle. Is that possible in “whatever”? Maybe not, but there are survivors in every disaster (even Hiroshima). The real question is at what level will your quality of life be afterwards. Your prior preparations will determine much of that, but your limit is not you supplies or equipment, but your level of training and knowledge.
You can control what knowledge you have. You can control – to some degree - where you live thus avoiding many potential dangers and providing many advantages. So in a very real sense each of us can provide our family and ourselves with a safety net come “whatever”.
Lastly, but most certainly not least, we strongly believe your situation will be better with a Faith-based approach much like our pioneer fathers and mothers had when they conquered a continent. Hope without Faith has the strength of a soaked tissue. If you believe, you can accomplish far more than you thought possible. Of course, there are many value systems and religions. Not all are of equal value. (Sorry that is not intolerance that is reality. How many answers does 2 + 2 have?) Moral systems do not exist separately from religion in any vibrant and meaningful way. Religions resolve into two mutually exclusive thrusts. One, I saved myself. Two, some other power (i.e.God) saved me – who was helpless at the time. Choose wisely.
Does it matter as long as you Believe? Let us ask that question to a computer. If you sincerely “Believe” you’ve typed in your program code correctly and have no logic errors, will that program run flawlessly and output the right results? Perhaps, but not just - and only - because of your sincerity. Your “Belief” must be in line with reality to avoid failure.
Your code of behavior and morals are based on the worldview you choose. It will come into play instinctively in everything you do. Some worldviews lead to a selfish “me first” attitude which greatly decreases your chances of survival – and a happy life. The Judeo-Christian worldview has respect for human life, love (even for, ugh, your enemies), second chances, and an injunction to be looking out for your neighbors’ welfare. This worldview greatly enhances your chances at life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
For those of you who like us are natural skeptics, do what the Apostle Paul suggested in Acts 17:11 – check it out. But be careful, many skeptics have set out to prove Christianity and the Bible “wrong” only to become converts. An excellent collection of facts and answers is “Evidence That Demands A Verdict” by Josh McDowell. For more discussion and references on this see our article on “Faith – Blind or Reasoned”.
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