Solar Flare & EMP Threats
Don Hodge for 4th Triage
In collaboration with Will Stewart
So why is there interest about solar flares and EMP? Are these credible potential problems/threats or are they the next fear monger’s “Global Warming” scare? Are they coming soon to a planet near you?
It is worth noting that while a terrorist EMP attack is categorized as “IF it will happen” (hopefully something we will prevent), a Solar Flare or Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a case of “WHEN will it happen”. And how big will it be.
Here’s an extract from an article (6) (italics added):
Last week we were attacked by the sun. For real. Huge solar eruptions sent a blast of radiation toward Earth. Thankfully, the planet’s natural magnetic shield warded off the worst effects. Life went on uninterrupted.
Here’s an extract from a great article from 10-26-2010 in USA Today (1):
“The sky erupts. Cities darken, food spoils and homes fall silent. Civilization collapses.
End-of-the-world novel? A video game? Or could such a scenario loom in America's future?”
Here’s an extract from another article (2):
“Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?”
That is the surprising results of a study “by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.”
Here’s an extract from another article (10):
“There’s a direct relationship between how technologically sophisticated a society is and how badly it could be hurt. That’s the meta-message of the report. “
Here’s an extract from an article by Ken Timmerman (1a) (Italics and underlining added): “Within 12 months of an EMP attack or a massive solar flare, between two-thirds to 90 percent of the U.S. population would perish” from lack of electricity, Pry said, quoting the conclusions from the EMP Commission's two public reports.
Okay. Are these a legitimate cause for some concern and preventative preparation? NASA, NOAA, the National Academy of Sciences, and several commissions created to examine these possibilities think so. Makes sense since electricity is the lynchpin to continuing our hi-tech Western Civilization. Without it for even a week, there would be a lot of suffering and economic loss. In summary, Bad Things happen. If a large enough area has the electric grid damaged and/or destroyed, recovery efforts will be severely delayed. If the damage covers a continent or more, recovery will probably take years (or decades) rather than months. A report suggests that a “super solar flare” could black out the electricity for 130 million people in the USA (2). Another report pegs the recovery period at 4 to 10 years for such an event (10). NOTE: our research causes us to feel those to estimates are low and ignore some things. These estimates require an event of very large magnitude, but ignore the disruption such an event would cause to any potential rescue/recovery effort.
Unfortunately our society doesn’t have much margin for error before people are at risk. Basic systems effected would include: water, sewage, pumping gasoline/diesel, long distance transportation (and our just-in-time delivery system), heating, air conditioning, refrigeration, manufacturing, medical services/hospitals, phone/TV/radio/short wave communications, lighting, and the thousands of things that use electricity. Did I mention the electric grid overloads can burn out and damage large transformers (which are essential for moving power over long distances) beyond repair? Current waiting time to produce a new one may be up to a year. Did I mention that EMP (which can also be produced from a solar flare) fries unprotected electronics? You can protect some electronics by simple Faraday cages – if the device is within the cage when the EMP occurs.
When thinking about the possible impacts on your family’s lives, please consider three things: 1) almost all consumables are not produced or grown locally (or within that mythical 100 miles); 2) consumable items must be brought in frequently to your location – some, like food, several times a week; and 3) if the emergency is long enough, no matter how much you’ve stored you will run out of whatever you can’t grow, raise, or make.
Here’s some background info. The sun has a basic cycle of sunspots averaging 11.1-years bundled in pairs or 22.2 years with a plus/minus variable (6). This gives rise to some debate as to exactly when the next peak or maximum will occur. Estimates range from September 2012 through May 2014 (see charts at reference 9). Solar Flares may occur at any time but there seem to be more and larger ones at the end of a cycle. Sunspots are cooler areas (which look like dark spots) where magnetic lines of force break through the surface of the sun. These lines of force are twisted like spaghetti because the sun’s equator completes a revolution in 25 days while the poles take 35 days. Longer solar cycles of up to 85 years complicate precision even farther. They have resulted in prolonged periods of warming (e.g. Middle Age Warming Period, 850-1300 AD) and cooling (Little Ice Age, from 1450s into 1820).
Geerts and Linacre (8) note “Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would decrease as the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased. However direct satellite measurements of irradiance have shown just the opposite to be the case. This means that more sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that global temperatures should rise.” This confirms what James Burke said (from on top of a glacier) in episode 6 of the 1976 Connections “It’s very simple, less sunspots means less heat. Nobody knows why. But that event kicked off the medieval Ice age.”
This from Randy Mann’s article 4-9-2009 in The Spokane-Review (7):
“As I’ve mentioned in past articles, activity on our sun has been minimal over the last year. Within the last 30 days, there have been no sunspots visible. With few or no storms on the sun, the energy output has decreased about 0.1 percent. Although the percentage seems insignificant, global temperatures have cooled from the peak in the late 1990s. …
This current time frame of solar inactivity is lasting longer than expected. The last time our sun went on a long period of inactivity was during a 70-year span called the “Maunder Minimum.” This occurred between 1645 and 1715, which likely contributed to The Little Ice Age.”
Hence the Little Ice Age was caused/extended by 3 periods of minimum sunspot activity. (NOTE for what it’s worth we are in another minimum and may be heading into decreasing temperatures until 2040 - 2041.)
Briefly summarizing – a Solar Flare may result in billions or trillions of tons of plasma thrown out from the sun. If that CME plasma is headed our way, the main effect will show up on Earth in 3 or 4 days. There are three main areas of concern: the long wave radiation/particles creating Ground Induced Currents damaging electric grids worldwide; the short wave radiation or EMP after the long wave dissipates and is spent; and a concern raised at a Veterinarians Conference in Atlanta (September 2010) about potential mutations of viruses and parasites.
Three examples (in descending severity) that we have recorded are: the decade long lead up to the September 1859 Carrington Event; a significant 1921 event (about 50% of the 1859 event); and the March 9-13, 1989 event (about 33% of the 1859 event) which knocked down the power grid (within 90 seconds) leaving 6 million without power for 9 hours in Quebec Province and parts of the US. Briefly, the 1859 event: 1) induced electrical currents in telegraph wires which caused some offices to burn down; and 2) caused some electrically activated chemicals like dynamite to explode in various places. CMEs put the whole world’s electric grids, electronics (which are much more vulnerable today), satellites, communications, GPS, air travel, and many other systems at risk.
I want to emphasize again “There’s a direct relationship between how technologically sophisticated a society is and how badly it could be hurt. That’s the meta-message of the report.” (10)
An excellent novel exploring an EMP attack on the US and the aftermath is “One Second After” by William Forstchen.
“…Both public and private sectors need to pay more attention to “hardening” truly vital infrastructure to make it more resistant and resilient to natural and manmade threats.” (6)
Reference Links
Here are some great articles we’ve found that should be very helpful in providing background on these extremely dangerous threats to the world.
(1) For the best overview I’ve found so far, check out the link listed below to Dan Vergano’s USA Today article from 10/26/2010. It has some nice graphics also.
Electromagnetic pulse impact far and wide by Dan Vergano, USA TODAY http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2010 -10-26-emp_N.htm
Key extract from article:
“The sky erupts. Cities darken, food spoils and homes fall silent. Civilization collapses.
End-of-the-world novel? A video game? Or could such a scenario loom in America's future?”
(1a) Murkowski Blocks Effort to Protect US Power Grid
Thursday, 14 Oct 2010 06:50 PM By: Ken Timmerman
(Ed. Note: She lost in 2010 primary and reneged on promise to support the primary winner. Such integrity from a Senator. This is about the stalled 2010 bipartisan legislation.)
Key extract from article: (Italics and underlining added)
“Within 12 months of an EMP attack or a massive solar flare, between two-thirds to 90 percent of the U.S. population would perish” from lack of electricity, Pry said, quoting the conclusions from the EMP Commission's two public reports.
(2) Severe Space Weather-Social and Economic Impacts (NASA Science News article 1-21-2009)
Key extract from article:
“Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?”
That is the surprising results of a study “by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.”
(3) Here is the complete NASA 2008 Conference Report (published January 2009)
Severe Space Weather Events – Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.
(4) Countering the EMP Threat: The Role of Missile Defense, a 2009 report from the Independent Working Group by Henry F. Cooper and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWGWhitePaper.pdf
(5) Space Forecasts, Solar Storms Report Coming Soon to Save the Power Grid
By Boonsri Dickinson November 3, 2010
(6) Heratige Foundation blog article “End Of The World … For Real” -
Posted August 16th, 2010 at 3:03pm in Protect America
Key extracts fron article: (Italics added for emphasis)
Last week we were attacked by the sun. For real. Huge solar eruptions sent a blast of radiation toward Earth. Thankfully, the planet’s natural magnetic shield warded off the worst effects. Life went on uninterrupted.
“…Both public and private sectors need to pay more attention to “hardening” truly vital infrastructure to make it more resistant and resilient to natural and manmade threats.”
(7) Solar Maximum Expected in 2012 by Randy Mann 4-9-2009 Spokane-Review
Key extract fron article:
As I’ve mentioned in past articles, activity on our sun has been minimal over the last year. Within the last 30 days, there have been no sunspots visible. With few or no storms on the sun, the energy output has decreased about 0.1 percent. Although the percentage seems insignificant, global temperatures have cooled from the peak in the late 1990s. …
This current time frame of solar inactivity is lasting longer than expected. The last time our sun went on a long period of inactivity was during a 70-year span called the “Maunder Minimum.” This occurred between 1645 and 1715, which likely contributed to The Little Ice Age
(8) Sunspots and Climate by B. Geerts and E. Linacre (12/1997)
(9) Solar Cycle Progression – NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center
(10) The 2012 Apocalypse — And How to Stop It by Brandon Keim, 4/17/2009
Key extract fron article:
There’s a direct relationship between how technologically sophisticated a society is and how badly it could be hurt. That’s the meta-message of the report.
