Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Veterinay supplies for sale 1000's of Items

Veterinary Clinic Closing from 53 year practice. Everything must go! Thousands of Items from...
Trans World X-ray Machine Linear MC-150 360V With Dark room and Supplies .
Thousands Of American and Swiss made Surgery supplies. NOT the Cheap Chinese stuff! Full surgery suite Hundreds of Crates and Carriers All sizes.
Rolling Steel Cages units. Modular Stack-able Fiberglass cages.
Lots of other supplies. 
Email 4thTriage@Gmail.com

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

The Fragile GPS


The Fragile GPS, a Technology Trap

Will Stewart for 4thTriage

In collaboration with Don Hodge

It WAS just after midday in San Deigo, California, when the disruption started. In the tower at the airport, aircraft controllers peered at their monitors only to find that their system for tracking incoming planes was malfunctioning. At the Naval Medical Center, emergency pagers used for summoning doctors stopped working. Chaos threatened in the busy harbour, too, after the traffic-management system used for guiding boats failed. On the streets, people reaching for their cellphones found they had no signal and bank customers trying to withdraw cash from local ATMs were refused. Problems persisted for another 2 hours.” (1)

This is the lead (about a January 2007 incident) to David Hambling’s excellent article.
GPS chaos: How a $30 box can jam your life” 21:00 06 March 2011 by David Hambling

What happened? The specific cause was two U.S. Navy ships in the harbour doing a training exercise. They were jamming radio signals.

But isn’t GPS just for finding location? GPS means Global Positioning Satellites. Yes, but this is accomplished by sending down radio waves (with date-time stamps) from at least four satellites. Weak radio signals. How weak? Consultant David Last, former president of the UK's Royal Institute of Navigation thinks “it's like a car headlight 20,000 kilometres away," (1). Unfortunately, the power sources on the satellites can’t increase the signal any more.

Okay. That explains the problems tracking the planes and boats, but what about the cellphones, pagers, and ATMs? The short answer is in two parts: 1) atomic clocks on the satellites; and 2) effeciency in reducing costs. Atomic clocks send down date-time stamps to the nanosecond that the software of the receiving device uses to calculate your distance from at least four satellites – giving you an incredably accurately location fix. Atomic clocks are expensive so good ol’ ingenuity, a love of effeciency, and American “getter-done” spirit took advamtage of those free date-time stamps in the GPS radio signals. ATMs and bank transfers use it (with a 3-nanosecond window of tolerance) to validate the transaction. No validation equals we ain’t doing anything. Cellphones, pagers, and electric power transmission use that date-time stamp to regulate and synchronize their traffic.

There are a lot of devices that use and depend on GPS.

This brings us to the central point of Hambling’s article. You can jam GPS with a $30 device made in China. The range is about a kilometer (.62 miles) if conditions are right. Some truckers and others use this type of device to avoid creating a record of where they went – and how fast. So locally, you (through technology you had no idea was in operation) can be shut down by a cheap device. Can you say “lone wolf nut-job and/or terrorist”? Unintended consequences, collateral damage; call it what you will. Consider it a very small taste of a massive solar flare or an EMP event. Here at least when the jamming stops, you’re back to normal.

Also consider it a warning or reminder that technology which we use but don’t understand has traps/vulnerabilities as well as wonderful benefits. James Burke’s excellent “Connections” series pointed this out 35 years ago. You can view these thought provoking programs at:

There is a second problem besides jamming. It is spoofing. Devices to do this are not yet being manufactured, but they might be produced for $400 to $500. What is spoofing? “Unlike a GPS jammer, which has fairly obvious effects, the spoofer's impact is slow and subtle. ‘The victim usually won't realise they're being spoofed,’ says [Randy] Humphreys [Univ. of Texas at Austin]. ‘It leaves no trace.’" (1) The spoofer collects GPS signals, alters them slightly, and sends them to the receiving device. The accumulating date-time stamp errors can be very significant. Ships, trains, and planes could be led to believe they are at one location when really at another. The biggest threat here comes from insiders who have access to the GPS receiver. Examples could be: stock and securities criminals, fishing boat captains wishing to go into illegal waters, and possibly terrorists.

The key thought is that we are in a window of vulnerability and will be for a significant period of time – a decade and possibly more. We’re travelin’ through “Injin Country”.

Solutions? Well, we have long held that dependence on electronic devices (the GPS in this case) is a critical failure point in a survival situation. Or what may for you suddenly become one.

For spoofing, there isn’t much you can do now. Technology may provide tools to detect it. Otherwise be vigilant and alert for “red flags” - things that don’t seem right.

Our advice for navigation is to have maps, learn to use a compass, and even a sextant. Batteries and electronics are not required. GPS, EMP, and solar flare proof.

For the other stuff, two approaches should become reality in the next decade or two: 1) atomic clocks should become cheaper and more common; and 2) we have a proven backup system that can be installed from the 1940s, LORAN.

Basic LORAN [LOng RAnge Navigation] is similar to GPS but uses ground-based radio signals rather than from satellites. LORAN operates at a far longer wavelength than GPS signals and is more powerful. Both of these features make it virtually impossible to jam” (1)

LORAN was phased out of use by the Coast Guard but is still in use around the world. It doesn't have complete global coverage, but does beat GPS on some things. It can be used as a second navigation system. It was even tested by the FAA and meets IFR standards. It is still susceptible to EMP, solar flares, power failures, and all the other weaknesses inherent to electronics. Also we feel that while it is much, much more difficult, it too can be jammed or spoofed.

The U.S. is developing LORAN and LORAN-C with our upgraded technology. The European Union is concentrating on their own enhanced version, eLORAN.

Reference Links:
(1) “GPS chaos: How a $30 box can jam your life” 21:00 06 March 2011 by David Hambling

(2) Is Loren-C the Answer to GPS Vulnerability?

(3) GPS Vulnerability Solutions

(4) GPS Vulnerability articles – Crossrate technology, also eLORAN

(5) Global Positioning System Timing Criticality Assessment - Preliminary Performance Results


(6) John A. Volpe National Transportations Center

Monday, February 7, 2011

Riots and Food

Will Stewart for 4thTriage
In collaboration with Don Hodge

One of the things that history teaches us, provided that we are listening, is that no civilization expects to fall. Rome didn't. Greece didn't.  Even with all the signs there for all to see no one wanted to believe that tomorrow wouldn't be the same or better.

That is just as true now as it has always been. Those that said Bad Things were coming were ridiculed - at best.  Old Testament Prophets Isaiah and Jeremiah come to mind.  Also the phrase “Don’t kill the messenger”.

We don't want to think it can happen here or now in the USA.  Of course, we also didn't think that Pearl Harbor or the 9/11 attacks could happen either.  History has tended to prove us disastrously wrong.  Stuff happens – even in your own backyard.

We at 4thTriage firmly believe that problems have solutions most of the time.  One of the striking facts about problems is that people who prepared and worked to fix the problems ahead of time tended to fare much better.  The first – and most important – step in solving problems is to simply be aware that a problem may exist.  You are not trying to figure out how likely the problem is to occur – just that it could.  And if it did occur, what impact would it have on your family.

This newsletter article by David Morris posted on December 9, 2010 (w/ short video clips) defines a problem  - riots/mob behavior.  What makes this particularly worry-some is that these riots are over stuff that they didn’t really need.  You can debate the cause of such behavior, but it is a reality that you must face.  Such behavior is becoming more frequent.  Most people (us too) handle this by not putting ourselves in that position.  But what if you have to have the item – food, medicine, gasoline, etc. – or your family’s lives are put at risk? 

http://secretsofurbansurvival.com/538/food-shortage-riots-video-preview/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Secretsofurbansurvivalcom+%28SecretsOfUrbanSurvival.com%29

Now, lets examine solutions in the case of food.  Here’s some background.

First, there was a 5% increase in food prices this past November.  Food prices are projected to increase another 10% to 20% during 2011.  Oil which is a vital component for energy, transportation of goods and people, agriculture, medicines, plastics, and thousands of other things is over $90 a barrel as we enter 2011.  Oil is projected to rise to at least $110 a barrel by the end of 2011.  As old wells deplete their supply, new wells must be drilled for production to remain constant.  The administration shut down drilling new oil wells in US waters of the Gulf during 2010.  They have announced limited drilling for 2011.  This has resulted in a 15% decrease in our domestic oil production.  (Note: we loaned Mexico $1 Billion and have pledged another $1 Billion so they can drill for oil in the Gulf; also Cuba has hired China to drill for oil in the Gulf off Florida.)  Some in the administration have indicated that they will not allow new drilling for oil during the next six (6) years in the Gulf or off the East Coast.  It seems likely that the price of food  - and many other things – will be increasing for the foreseeable future.

Everyone processes certain foods differently with more or less efficiency.  Dr. Mercola has an online test to help you determine your body type and what it processes best.

http://nutritionaltyping.mercola.com/login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fPreTest.aspx
 
Food that your body doesn’t process efficiently may “require 2-5 TIMES more food (for you) to function” (Morris 12/30/10, insert added).  Of course, higher quality food allows your body type to process it more efficiently too. 

The definition of “higher quality” food gets quite a bit of debate.  Even taking body type out of the equation, one size definitely does not fit all.  Most would agree that the antibiotics, growth hormones, pesticides, and additives in your processed foods are not the best thing for your long-term health.  Contaminated food grown in countries like Mexico (and many others) where sanitation/health standards are not as vigorously enforced are also a concern.  This why people are moving towards raising as much of their food as they can or buying from a local grower (who you can personally check out).  This seems to be a better alternative than processed foods.  Note that while “processed foods” may be down towards the bottom of your preferences, you must eat.  So if that’s all you have, eat it.  Do your research and try to select those foods/companies with the fewest concerns.  Also a number of the foods you like and use regularly are not grown in that mythical 100-mile circle around your town.  Salt, coffee, non-mint tea, and many fruits come to mind off the top of my head.  I’m sure you can think of many others.

Another area of debate is “organic”.  Organic usually means grown on land that hasn’t had chemicals or pesticides applied to it for 10 years – and has been officially certified.  There are a lot of local farms and gardeners with excess who walk the walk but have never been certified.  Talk with them and observe.  Also “organic” means nothing if the nutrients are missing from the soil.  You have to enrich and maintain your soil.  One of the best systems for that is John Jeavon’s Ecology Action in Willits, CA ( http://www.growbiointensive.org/ ).  His composting system can turn sub-horizon soil (i.e. rock dust) into rich organic loam in seven (7) years – about 60 times faster than Mother Nature.  This system’s yields for many crops (in 100 sq. ft. plots) with medium quality soil far out produce large commercial farms per acre.  We recommend his book “How to Grow More Vegetables - than you ever thought possible on less land than you imagined” (2007).  Again, one size definitely does not fit all.  Everyone has their own tricks of the trade - and climates to deal with.

Morris points out in his 12/30/10 posting  “This topic gets REALLY complex in a hurry, but the following factors will address the majority of the issue.
1.Complexity of the food
2.Glycemic index
3.Enzymes
4.Allergies
5.Bacteria
6.Bio availability ”
 Here’s his article which discusses them.  Read the comments for some good ideas:

http://secretsofurbansurvival.com/585/efficient-food-for-prepping-food-storage-and-survival/

David Morris can be found at SurviveInPlace.com, UrbanSurvivalGuide.com, Twitter and Facebook (both as SurvivalDave).

We’ll skip an analysis of the benefits from a well-stocked pantry.  They are many and particularly relevant in these uncertain times.

Now lets look at some practical things you can do on a budget, in an apartment, or in a rental.  The key approach is to store what you eat and eat what you store.  That means you eat out of your pantry.  This promotes rotation – first in, first out - so that you don’t waste anything.

First, build up a supply for 3 to 6 months of cheap basic foods (that you will eat).  Substitute some of these “basic” meals for your regular meals to: 1) get your family use to them; and 2) confirm that they will eat it.  Some of these less extensive foods include rice, beans, and oatmeal.  The rice and beans combination will provide all 26 amino acids the human body needs - just like meat.  You can build up this supply fairly quickly by constantly buying some each week or month.  It isn’t glamorous, but it beats seeing your children hungry.  Adding a little of hot sauces, steak sauces, bouillon cubes (like Wylers and Herb ox), sweeteners, spices, salsas, peppers, and vegetables make things taste much better.

At the same time do “sprouting”.  You do this indoors all year at a cost of very little space or money.  Very simple - just swish water over seeds in a jar several times a day, drain the water (use that water in making soup), and watch the seeds sprout.  You don’t even need light to grow these tasty morsels.  Ann Wigmore wrote a good book entitled “The Sprouting Book”.  It covers the basic methods of sprouting.  John Breakey (Mother Earth News Issue #72, Nov/Dec 1981) put together an excellent and fairly complete sprouting chart.  It is a course on various seeds and methods/steps in sprouting them.  Costs and seed companies may be out of date.  Breakey no longer publishes his newsletter, Sproutletter.  Here’s the link:
http://www.motherearthnews.com/Organic-Gardening/1981-11-01/Jeff-Breakeys-Complete-Sprouting-Chart.aspx  (You’ll have to click to enlarge the image.)

Also consider container gardening which can produce kitchen herbs, a tub or two of potatoes, and most vegetables.  The larger containers can be mounted on rollers and relocated to balconies and patios weather permitting.  Hanging baskets/pots where the roots are in the basket and the plant hangs down producing larger fruits with no chance of the fruit rotting on the ground.  This method is particularly well suited for tomatoes, cucumbers, and strawberries.  You may have to hang a net from the basket to support the fruit as it approaches harvest.  I don’t mention fruit trees in containers here because they are better suited for planting in permanent sites and will take several years – at a minimum – to produce.  While there are fruit bushes (including cherries and plums) which only grow 3’ or 4’ high, they also may take several years to produce fruit.

Hydroponics is a very good solution that generally follows the 1/3 rule – 1/3 more, 1/3 faster, and 1/3 more nutrition.  Also no pesticides, diseases, blights, nematodes, only the few insects you let in your home or the greenhouse, or the rotting of some produce on the ground.   On a personal, low profile (i.e. hide-in-place) level you can do it in your house, basement, or garage with LED lights.  On a group/community level you can put up a green house.  Tom Blount, perhaps the premier hydroponics expert, has a consulting company, Nevada Naturals (NevadaNaturals.com), which also provides equipment for mini-home systems and greenhouses.  One greenhouse (60’ x 30’) with various hydroponics systems will produce 10,000 pounds of vegetables each month.  He has a site ( http://hydroponicblueprint.com/ ) which offers a “blueprint” for beginners in charts and videos.  Vegetables that can be grown well include: lettuce, greens, herbs, tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, straw-berries, blueberries, and potatoes.

There are several types of hydroponics systems.  All revolve around delivering water, nutrients, and oxygen to the roots of the plants.  The “float” method is a good system - and you can go away for two weeks.  You could set up a 4’ x 8’ system (about 160 plants) for around $50 using a 4 x 8 sheet of plywood, sides made of 2” x 6” boards, a plastic sheet as a liner, some Styrofoam to float on top of the water, and an aquarium air pump to add oxygen to the water.  Cut holes in the Styrofoam 5” apart for the germinated seeds.  Cover the water completely to avoid algae growth (not dangerous but slows plant growth as it collects on the roots).  Nutrient mixes can be bought or you can make your own.  You can make nutrient teas from manures, compost and folic acid.  One formula from James B. Dekorne (The Survival Greenhouse) mixed equal parts of rabbit manure, chicken manure, ground wood ashes, and earthworm castings.  Indoor lighting with LEDs will be great.  Add a red lens or piece of plastic for fruiting plants and blue for greens.  A company that makes high quality LEDs is Light Beam ( http://www.lightbeaminc.com/ ).   Note: once Blount had a large basement system and was visited by the DEA.  Their comment was that he was the second person they’d interviewed in four years growing a legal crop.  Cooling in hot climates/seasons can be accomplished by water walls (swamp coolers), shade covers, and in a greenhouse by also opening vents in the roof.  Heating can be done by attaching a water heater.  Keeping the roots warm is key.  After all, lettuce can grow in ice.

Know and locate patches where local wild foods grow such as cattails, prickly pear cactus, berries, and nuts.  Know your neighborhood.  Some folks may be giving away excess from their gardens and/or fruit trees.

Next there is “wetpack” or commercially canned foods.  Much of your regular menu probably comes from here.  These store well for two years before losing significant nutrient content and may be eaten cold.  Tomato based products store for 6 months to a year because of the acid content.  James Talmage Stevens’ book “Making The Best Of Basics” has pretty good charts of shelf life for almost everything, quantities used in a year, storage concerns and methods, and recipes for the Mormon Four – wheat, honey, powdered milk, and salt.  This is a must have book.

That brings up another of debate – to cook or eat raw.  Cooking (and commercial processing) destroys nutrients.  With vegetables, fruits, and most nuts eating raw usually poses no problems.  With meat – particularly pork and wild game – you may have to kill parasites and disease organisms.  Better safe than sorry here.

Freeze dried foods and nitrogen sealed 5 or 6 gallon buckets (and #10 cans) will last 20 to 30 years under proper storage temperatures.  For every 10 degrees F above 70 F the shelf life is roughly cut in half.  For every 10 degrees F below 70 F the shelf life is roughly doubled.  Root Cellars take advantage of the fact that ground temp below the freeze line – usually 3’ to 4’ in the lower 48 of the USA – is 50-55 F all year.

Professionally prepared long-term storage foods have many advantages – no immediate need to rotate or lose your investment; security against future disasters, disease wiping out your garden, or economic problems; many basic foods, meals, less common foods; and bulk purchases.  The downside is cost.  You need to remember that you are paying a premium for the 30-year shelf life.  If the emergency goes on for a year or two and you eat up all of this stored food, was the premium for the extra 28 years shelf life the best use of your money – assuming you’re on a budget.  Look, if the emergency goes on long enough, you will run out of whatever you stored unless you can make it, raise it, or grow it.  If an emergency lasts a year or two, why would you think it won’t last 5 or 10 years?  Me, I’d concentrate on laying in meals for 5 years total rather than 1 year’s worth which would have a shelf life of 30 years.  (Here, of course, cost raises its ugly head for most of us.)  Now, five years gives a better cushion to learn and/or polish your gardening and livestock skills.  Our colonial ancestors tried to plant four (4) times as much as they thought they’d need to get them to the next harvest.  Even experienced gardeners today can lose most of their harvest.  Today we can make good that loss with a trip to the grocery store – an option you wouldn’t have in a long-term emergency.

Other things you could do are a family garden and raising small livestock – rabbits, chickens, fish, perhaps a female goat, and/or a female pig.  Note that pigs can be potty trained.  You would either need a permanent site (w/ a yard) or a landlord who would allow you to do so.  Zoning regulations also need to be checked out.

Storage of food is a top priority.  You can do storage yourself with home canning.  Another method is solar dehydration (even using your car w/ the windows up).  Meat can be made into jerky by dehydration (in the oven or outdoors protecting from insects/birds w/ cheesecloth).  You can get storage buckets, liners, and gamma lids from preparation/survival websites and stores.  Two sources are Emergency Essentials ( beprepared.com ) and The Ready Store ( TheReadyStore.com ).  With buckets you want to remove moisture.  You can put a packet of food desiccant in the bottom of the bucket before filling.  You must remove the oxygen before sealing.  The simplest method is placing a piece of newspaper on top of the contents and then add dry ice (be really careful to use thick, dry gloves).  As the dry ice melts, CO2 fills the bucket forcing the oxygen up and out.  Remove the newspaper and seal tightly.  A vacuum sealer is very useful for keeping dehydrated foods and partially cooked foods destined for the freezer – a chest type freezer, please, Not an Upright.

For more information see our post on food management.
http://4thtriage.blogspot.com/2010/11/preparedness-part-6-food-management.html

Friday, January 28, 2011

The Pros and Cons of Single-Family Self-Sufficiency


Don Hodge for 4thTriage
with contributions by Will Stewart
We pretty much think of self-sufficiency in the terms of a single-family situation. Most “preparedness”, “self-sufficiency”, and “survivalist” material is geared for the family unit – the basic building block of human civilization.

One reason we like this approach is the freedom to make our own decisions. We like to be able to choose to plant swiss chard and tomatoes as opposed to zucchini and collards – or vice versa. Even if someone else thinks our decisions are foolish or will produce less. Hey, maybe we like swiss chard and hate zucchini. Maybe we prefer container gardening to planting raised beds; or raising goats as opposed to catfish; or solar vs. wind vs. not there yet. Freedom to choose.

There is another reason that many of us don’t proceed past the single-family approach. This reason is often hidden and unstated. We simply don’t like the hassle of persuading others to do something. What seems obvious and good to us, often isn’t seen by others as such a smart idea. They may not see the ROI – Return On Investment – as being worth the materials used, time spent, or rewards. In fact, sometimes others can be downright rude in expressing their thoughts about our ideas. So there is a lot less hassle with a single-family approach. No question about that. The family unit is where it is easiest to come to a decision to actually do something. The farther away you get from the family – to neighbors, to community government towards county, state, and finally national government/agencies – the harder it is to get people to agree anything needs to be done, let alone get anything done.

I would like to strongly suggest that a community group approach is necessary. It is a better way to achieve long-term self-sufficiency for your family. There are limits to what family units can accomplish alone – or find convenient to do without others.

First, some people have more advanced skills than our own. It makes more sense to concentrate on things we like to do (and are good at) and trade with those who do other things. It’s usually more efficient and saves you on having to spend the time learning and perfecting that skill and/or having to buy the tools needed for that. For example when is the last time you set the broken bones in your own leg, put new soles on your shoes, built a rocking chair, or grew your own coffee?

A second reason for groups is that some tasks are labor intensive – moving heavy equipment like a large refrigerator, building a barn, repairing fences, getting in the harvest, drilling a well, digging a methane digester, putting up a tower for a wind generator, or chasing down those pesky animals that got out of the pasture. Also in a disaster (winter storm, tornado, flooding, man-made, etc.) the police, medical, and firefighters may be busy or even unable to respond. You and any neighbors may have to handle it and provided your own public services.

A third reason for groups is that you may have to provide your own security. That of course includes the public services listed above. However, there are more and more criminals in our society who seem to be getting bolder. These criminals and thieves act in seconds. The police respond in minutes AFTER they are notified that there is a problem - in the best of times. The police, by and large, do a great job but their response time gets worse – bad weather hinders things even more - if you live outside of the city. They try but distance is a great hurdle when seconds and minutes count. Okay, forewarned is forearmed. You can prepare for the occasional thief and violent criminal. Preferably with a neighborhood response plan.

Question: how do you respond to a group of bikers or gangbangers that show up in your isolated stretch of country? It really doesn’t matter whether it’s a drug deal or whatever, the potential for a large problem is staring you in the face. Well, you say “It will never happen in my area”. Really? You can guarantee that? Well, you might be right. I hope you are right. But what if something does happen? History tells us that “Stuff” really does happen in our backyards. The real question is what is the cost to your family if something happens and you have not prepared for it?

Remember, it will take long minutes for the police to arrive after they are notified.

If you are dealing with groups of looters (think Katrina) or criminals, you better have firearms and a secure place to go - at a minimum. Organized groups are better at defending against the bad guys than single-family units. A couple of points here. 1) It does not matter to you if the people who hurt/kill you are just scared or thugs. The result is the same. 2) Organized does not mean I have a gun, I am invincible. Organized means preparation ahead of time. It lays out who does what and when they do it. It might be as simple as everyone ducking for cover and calling the cops. Or a number of people poking guns out windows – as happened in a small West Virginia town to a group bikers looking for fun. The bikers then felt they needed the State Police to get the townspeople to let the bikers go. Whatever, you all need to be on the same page or people will get hurt. You will need to practice, practice, practice.

Please note we ARE talking about a Neighborhood Watch plugged into the local police and coordinated with them, NOT A MILITIA. If there is some regional or national disaster and relief hasn’t arrived for several weeks THEN your Neighborhood Watch COULD evolve into a Militia.

One last point on the need for the security a group can provide. A single-family unit – particularly if isolated – is vulnerable to a lone sniper who fades in and out picking off family members one at a time. Afterwards he would take what he wanted and disappear. While this is much more likely after some disruption or catastrophe, it could happen quite easily today. You would need a group of people devoting a lot of time (time that a single-family unit can’t afford) to eliminate that sniper.

A fourth advantage is the efficiencies you can have with a group in your neighborhood (or close by). You can combine a lot of your activities to everyone’s benefit. You can combine your sales efforts in your roadside stands, farm markets, and deliveries to local stores and restaurants. You can rotate the labor involved in those tasks and other things. Also if you form a Grange or Co-op, you can pool together on the costs of some community equipment.

In summary the advantages of the single-family approach are:
  • Freedom of choice
  • No hassle from trying to persuade others

The advantages of the community group approach are:
  • Freedom of choice
  • Ability to concentrate on what you do best and avoid the extra cost of some tools
  • Provide the man-power for labor intensive tasks
  • Provide better security
  • Provide marketing and labor efficiencies


THINK ABOUT IT.
 

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Solar Flare & EMP Threats


Solar Flare & EMP Threats
Don Hodge for 4th Triage
In collaboration with Will Stewart



So why is there interest about solar flares and EMP? Are these credible potential problems/threats or are they the next fear monger’s “Global Warming” scare? Are they coming soon to a planet near you?

It is worth noting that while a terrorist EMP attack is categorized as “IF it will happen” (hopefully something we will prevent), a Solar Flare or Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a case of “WHEN will it happen”. And how big will it be.

Here’s an extract from an article (6) (italics added):
Last week we were attacked by the sun. For real. Huge solar eruptions sent a blast of radiation toward Earth. Thankfully, the planet’s natural magnetic shield warded off the worst effects. Life went on uninterrupted.

Here’s an extract from a great article from 10-26-2010 in USA Today (1):
“The sky erupts. Cities darken, food spoils and homes fall silent. Civilization collapses.
End-of-the-world novel? A video game? Or could such a scenario loom in America's future?”
Here’s an extract from another article (2):
“Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?”

That is the surprising results of a study “by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.”

Here’s an extract from another article (10):
“There’s a direct relationship between how technologically sophisticated a society is and how badly it could be hurt. That’s the meta-message of the report. “

Here’s an extract from an article by Ken Timmerman (1a) (Italics and underlining added): Within 12 months of an EMP attack or a massive solar flare, between two-thirds to 90 percent of the U.S. population would perish” from lack of electricity, Pry said, quoting the conclusions from the EMP Commission's two public reports.

Okay. Are these a legitimate cause for some concern and preventative preparation? NASA, NOAA, the National Academy of Sciences, and several commissions created to examine these possibilities think so. Makes sense since electricity is the lynchpin to continuing our hi-tech Western Civilization. Without it for even a week, there would be a lot of suffering and economic loss. In summary, Bad Things happen. If a large enough area has the electric grid damaged and/or destroyed, recovery efforts will be severely delayed. If the damage covers a continent or more, recovery will probably take years (or decades) rather than months. A report suggests that a “super solar flare” could black out the electricity for 130 million people in the USA (2). Another report pegs the recovery period at 4 to 10 years for such an event (10). NOTE: our research causes us to feel those to estimates are low and ignore some things. These estimates require an event of very large magnitude, but ignore the disruption such an event would cause to any potential rescue/recovery effort.

Unfortunately our society doesn’t have much margin for error before people are at risk. Basic systems effected would include: water, sewage, pumping gasoline/diesel, long distance transportation (and our just-in-time delivery system), heating, air conditioning, refrigeration, manufacturing, medical services/hospitals, phone/TV/radio/short wave communications, lighting, and the thousands of things that use electricity. Did I mention the electric grid overloads can burn out and damage large transformers (which are essential for moving power over long distances) beyond repair? Current waiting time to produce a new one may be up to a year. Did I mention that EMP (which can also be produced from a solar flare) fries unprotected electronics? You can protect some electronics by simple Faraday cages – if the device is within the cage when the EMP occurs.

When thinking about the possible impacts on your family’s lives, please consider three things: 1) almost all consumables are not produced or grown locally (or within that mythical 100 miles); 2) consumable items must be brought in frequently to your location – some, like food, several times a week; and 3) if the emergency is long enough, no matter how much you’ve stored you will run out of whatever you can’t grow, raise, or make.

Here’s some background info. The sun has a basic cycle of sunspots averaging 11.1-years bundled in pairs or 22.2 years with a plus/minus variable (6). This gives rise to some debate as to exactly when the next peak or maximum will occur. Estimates range from September 2012 through May 2014 (see charts at reference 9). Solar Flares may occur at any time but there seem to be more and larger ones at the end of a cycle. Sunspots are cooler areas (which look like dark spots) where magnetic lines of force break through the surface of the sun. These lines of force are twisted like spaghetti because the sun’s equator completes a revolution in 25 days while the poles take 35 days. Longer solar cycles of up to 85 years complicate precision even farther. They have resulted in prolonged periods of warming (e.g. Middle Age Warming Period, 850-1300 AD) and cooling (Little Ice Age, from 1450s into 1820).
Geerts and Linacre (8) note “Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would decrease as the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased. However direct satellite measurements of irradiance have shown just the opposite to be the case. This means that more sunspots deliver more energy to the atmosphere, so that global temperatures should rise.” This confirms what James Burke said (from on top of a glacier) in episode 6 of the 1976 Connections “It’s very simple, less sunspots means less heat.  Nobody knows why. But that event kicked off the medieval Ice age.”

This from Randy Mann’s article 4-9-2009 in The Spokane-Review (7):

As I’ve mentioned in past articles, activity on our sun has been minimal over the last year. Within the last 30 days, there have been no sunspots visible. With few or no storms on the sun, the energy output has decreased about 0.1 percent. Although the percentage seems insignificant, global temperatures have cooled from the peak in the late 1990s.

This current time frame of solar inactivity is lasting longer than expected. The last time our sun went on a long period of inactivity was during a 70-year span called the “Maunder Minimum.” This occurred between 1645 and 1715, which likely contributed to The Little Ice Age.”

Hence the Little Ice Age was caused/extended by 3 periods of minimum sunspot activity. (NOTE for what it’s worth we are in another minimum and may be heading into decreasing temperatures until 2040 - 2041.)

Briefly summarizing – a Solar Flare may result in billions or trillions of tons of plasma thrown out from the sun. If that CME plasma is headed our way, the main effect will show up on Earth in 3 or 4 days. There are three main areas of concern: the long wave radiation/particles creating Ground Induced Currents damaging electric grids worldwide; the short wave radiation or EMP after the long wave dissipates and is spent; and a concern raised at a Veterinarians Conference in Atlanta (September 2010) about potential mutations of viruses and parasites.

Three examples (in descending severity) that we have recorded are: the decade long lead up to the September 1859 Carrington Event; a significant 1921 event (about 50% of the 1859 event); and the March 9-13, 1989 event (about 33% of the 1859 event) which knocked down the power grid (within 90 seconds) leaving 6 million without power for 9 hours in Quebec Province and parts of the US. Briefly, the 1859 event: 1) induced electrical currents in telegraph wires which caused some offices to burn down; and 2) caused some electrically activated chemicals like dynamite to explode in various places. CMEs put the whole world’s electric grids, electronics (which are much more vulnerable today), satellites, communications, GPS, air travel, and many other systems at risk.

I want to emphasize again “There’s a direct relationship between how technologically sophisticated a society is and how badly it could be hurt. That’s the meta-message of the report.” (10)
An excellent novel exploring an EMP attack on the US and the aftermath is “One Second After” by William Forstchen.
“…Both public and private sectors need to pay more attention to “hardening” truly vital infrastructure to make it more resistant and resilient to natural and manmade threats.” (6)

Reference Links

Here are some great articles we’ve found that should be very helpful in providing background on these extremely dangerous threats to the world.

(1) For the best overview I’ve found so far, check out the link listed below to Dan Vergano’s USA Today article from 10/26/2010. It has some nice graphics also.

Electromagnetic pulse impact far and wide by Dan Vergano, USA TODAY http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2010 -10-26-emp_N.htm

Key extract from article:
“The sky erupts. Cities darken, food spoils and homes fall silent. Civilization collapses.
End-of-the-world novel? A video game? Or could such a scenario loom in America's future?”
(1a) Murkowski Blocks Effort to Protect US Power Grid
Thursday, 14 Oct 2010 06:50 PM By: Ken Timmerman
(Ed. Note: She lost in 2010 primary and reneged on promise to support the primary winner. Such integrity from a Senator. This is about the stalled 2010 bipartisan legislation.)

Key extract from article: (Italics and underlining added)
Within 12 months of an EMP attack or a massive solar flare, between two-thirds to 90 percent of the U.S. population would perish” from lack of electricity, Pry said, quoting the conclusions from the EMP Commission's two public reports.

(2) Severe Space Weather-Social and Economic Impacts (NASA Science News article 1-21-2009)
Key extract from article:
“Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?”

That is the surprising results of a study “by the National Academy of Sciences entitled Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts. In the 132-page report, experts detailed what might happen to our modern, high-tech society in the event of a "super solar flare" followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. They found that almost nothing is immune from space weather—not even the water in your bathroom.”

(3) Here is the complete NASA 2008 Conference Report (published January 2009)
Severe Space Weather Events – Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.

(4) Countering the EMP Threat: The Role of Missile Defense, a 2009 report from the Independent Working Group by Henry F. Cooper and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWGWhitePaper.pdf

(5) Space Forecasts, Solar Storms Report Coming Soon to Save the Power Grid

By Boonsri Dickinson November 3, 2010

(6) Heratige Foundation blog article “End Of The World … For Real” -
Posted August 16th, 2010 at 3:03pm in Protect America
Key extracts fron article: (Italics added for emphasis)
Last week we were attacked by the sun. For real. Huge solar eruptions sent a blast of radiation toward Earth. Thankfully, the planet’s natural magnetic shield warded off the worst effects. Life went on uninterrupted.
“…Both public and private sectors need to pay more attention to “hardening” truly vital infrastructure to make it more resistant and resilient to natural and manmade threats.”

(7) Solar Maximum Expected in 2012 by Randy Mann 4-9-2009 Spokane-Review

Key extract fron article:
As I’ve mentioned in past articles, activity on our sun has been minimal over the last year. Within the last 30 days, there have been no sunspots visible. With few or no storms on the sun, the energy output has decreased about 0.1 percent. Although the percentage seems insignificant, global temperatures have cooled from the peak in the late 1990s.

This current time frame of solar inactivity is lasting longer than expected. The last time our sun went on a long period of inactivity was during a 70-year span called the “Maunder Minimum.” This occurred between 1645 and 1715, which likely contributed to The Little Ice Age

(8) Sunspots and Climate by B. Geerts and E. Linacre (12/1997)

(9) Solar Cycle Progression – NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center

(10) The 2012 Apocalypse — And How to Stop It by Brandon Keim, 4/17/2009

Key extract fron article:
There’s a direct relationship between how technologically sophisticated a society is and how badly it could be hurt. That’s the meta-message of the report.

Saturday, December 18, 2010

The Christmas Prepper

It's Christmas and you still have only half of your list done, What is a good prepper to do?
I know. I know. We should have prepared, DUH.
I don't know about the rest of you, but I seem to be hard wired to remember my list on the 23rd.

The recent snow started this ball rolling for me. Last February a neighbor was snowed in so I took over some of my Freeze dried food.  That small gift got them thinking about how practical it is to prepare.

So here is a short list if you are stuck for a Christmas gift for your favorite prepper, Or maybe someone that's still on the fence.
While I'm on the subject; why stop at Christmas? I made it a new years resolution to send prepper items for every occasion for the new year.

Here is a sampling of the of items that might just jog your thinking.



DVD – John Jeavon’s “Grow Biointensive: A Beginner’s Guide in 8 Easy Sessions”
    Filmed at Ecology Action’s Research Farm.  $20. from Bountiful Gardens
    bountiful@sonic.net    (707) 459-6410  9 am – 4 pm PST M-F

Book – “The Resilient Gardner”  by Carol Deppe   $29.95 from Bountiful Gardens
    bountiful@sonic.net    (707) 459-6410  9 am – 4 pm PST M-F
     No gasoline, electricity, water?  How did peasants cope w/ climate change in the
    12th century?  Bad health limiting your gardening?  Carol offers creative, practical
solutions.  She lists crops to provide a balanced diet that are easy to process and
store.  Also recipes to provide great taste.

Seed packets – Easy Heirloom Collection   $26.50 from Bountiful Gardens
    bountiful@sonic.net    (707) 459-6410  9 am – 4 pm PST M-F
    Popular varieties and easy to grow for beginners.  13 packets include string beans,
beets, broccoli, carrot, corn, kale, lettuce, peas, sweet pepper, summer squash,
winter squash, sunflower and tomato

Book – “The New Self-Sufficient Gardner”  by John Seymour (2008)  
$19.95 from Bountiful Gardens
    bountiful@sonic.net    (707) 459-6410  9 am – 4 pm PST M-F
     Updated classic for container gardening up to the 25-acre farmer.


You can make a difference for someone even if it's a book or a single Can of Freeze dried food. Who knows maybe that one item will make all the difference.


Merry Christmas to One and All
From Will and Don

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Helpful hint; Eye wear.


Goggles or safety glasses is an Item I strongly recommend for everyone to have with them in a disaster or chaotic situation.
For those that need them there are Bifocal safety glasses. Even surplus centers have them.

For those that have to wear glasses; It is a good idea to keep the previous pair at a minimum.
In a chaotic situation you may not be able to get a new pair.
It is even better to get a pair of the heavy duty sports glasses. They are much more durable than standard glasses and can be used as safety glasses in a pinch. They are designed to stay on with vigorous exercise.  In a disaster they could be invaluable.

If you are unable to get sports glasses for any reason. You need to consider getting standard glasses that are durable and you need to have headband style strap to keep them on during vigorous activity.
A pair of safety goggles or sunglasses that can be worn over your glasses is a very good idea.
This will protect the prescription lenses and that is an additional measure of keeping you glasses on and reducing the chances of damage or loss of the glasses as well as an additional measure of protection for your eyes.

Those that wear contact lenses should consider this seriously. In any disaster scenario you will have contaminants or irritants that you do not want on your hands let alone in your eyes.
You won't be as likely to get sterile saline or distilled water in a chaotic situation. If you have a lot of this stockpiled you will have to consider the impact this will have on what you can carry with you.
If the situation is unsettled long enough you may run out and not be able to obtain more.
You need to consider keeping several sets of glasses yourselves.

I will post other hints regarding other assistive devices as we progress through this Blog.

Will